Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Sep 12 07 14:19 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Dollar Remains Pressured Against Euro, Mixed Elsewhere
Dollar continues to make record low against Euro but turned mixed against other majors. Even though the greenback remains generally pressured, decisive momentum is not seen yet as markets are still wondering whether Fed will cut by 25bps or 50bps. Further choppy price actions could be seen, probably at least before Friday’s retail sales data. Sterling got little support from today’s job report even though total joblessness continued to fall with the claimant count slipping to a two-year low of 2.6% in Aug from 2.7%. The ILO jobless rate held steady at 5.4% for the third month in a row, while earnings growth reported a minimal pickup.
Canadian dollar remains firm after BOC Governor Dodge’s speech. Dodge said the “wall of liquidity” evaporated as repricing of credit risks accelerated in Aug. Also, he emphasized that BoC’s actions to provide liquidity “did not in any way signal a change in our monetary policy. In fact, it was a step in maintaining our monetary policy stance by keeping our target for the overnight rate at 4 1/2 per cent, which we judged appropriate for keeping inflation on target over the medium term.”
RBNZ and SNB will announce rate decision tomorrow. While RBNZ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 8.25%, opinion on SNB is divided. Even though some expect another 25bps hike from SNB, some argue that several other factors easing the need for the SNB to act immediately. Inflation is so far mild this year and Swissy has been appreciating due to carry trade unwinding. EUR/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3795; (P) 1.3821; (R1) 1.3865; «www.actionforex.com»
EUR/USD continues to strengthen to as high as 1.3888 after taking out 1.3851 resistance. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.3822 support holds. Next upside target will be 100% projection of 1.3360 to 1.3719 from 1.3552 at 1.3911 and then 1.4 psychological support. On the downside, touching of 1.3822 will indicate an intraday top is formed and bring pull back. But rise from 1.3360 should still be in force as long as shorter term rising trend line support (now at 1.3638) holds.
In the bigger picture, break of mentioned 1.3822/51 resistance zone indicates that up trend from 1.1639 has resumed. Also, this will add much weight to the case that long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) has resumed too. Further upside should then be seen targeting 1.4000 psychological resistance and probably further to 1.4523 (95 high).
However, note that failure to sustain above 1.3822/51 and a break of 1.3552 support will indicate that the consolidation from 1.3851 is not completed yet and another test of 1.3360 low could be seen before completion. But still, decisive break of 1.3262 low is needed to add favor to the case that whole up trend from 1.1639 has completed and bring further fall to 1.2978 (medium term resistance turned support). Otherwise, medium term outlook is neutral at worst.
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 2.0265; (P) 2.0300; (R1) 2.0365; «www.actionforex.com»
Cable edges higher to 2.0365 but upside momentum is not convincing so far. Nevertheless, further rally is still expected as long as 2.0227 support holds. Next upside target is 2.0462 resistance and break will bring retest of key resistance zone of 2.0652 high and 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677. Below 2.0227 will turn intraday outlook consolidative and probably bring pullback. But rise from 1.9652 should still be in force as long as 1.9959 support holds.
In the bigger picture, cable is still kept above 1.9621 support as well as 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.9522), thus giving no confirmation of a long term reversal yet. That is up trend from 1.7047 could still be in force. Focus remains on 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677. Decisive break of this resistance is needed to confirm rally from 1.7047 has resumed for 100% projection of 1.3680 to 1.9554 from 1.7047 at 2.2901
On the downside, failure to take out 2.0677 fibo resistance or a break below 1.9959 will suggest that fall from 2.0652 is probably developing into deeper correction and retest of mentioned support zone of 1.9621 support and 38.2% retracement of 1.8090 to 2.0652 at 1.9673 should be seen. Also, sustained trading below 1.9621 support will add more credence to the case that whole rally from 1.7047 has indeed completed and bring deeper decline to next support zone of 1.9183 and 38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 2.0652 at 1.9275 first. But still, medium term outlook will remain neutral at worst as long as 1.9621 support holds.
USD/CHF
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1851; (P) 1.1874; (R1) 1.1911; «www.actionforex.com».
USD/CHF edges further lower to 1.1818 today, inch above mentioned 1.1816 support but downside momentum is not convincing, with 4 hours MACD staying above signal line. Nevertheless, further decline is still in favor as long as 1.1897 resistance holds. Decisive break of 1.1816 will encourage further fall towards 100% projection of 1.2467 to 1.1816 from 1.2214 at 1.1563. However, above 1.1897 will suggest that a short term low is likely formed and will bring stronger recovery towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.1956.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, outlook is turned mixed after the strong rebound from 1.1816 dampened our original view that USD/CHF has completed a wide range triangle consolidation that started at 1.1919. There are various interpretation of the medium term price actions that started at 1.1919 (May 06) but none of them is really convincing yet.
Nevertheless, USD/CHF has had a series of lower highs since Nov 05, ie 1.3823, 1.3238, 1.2768, 1.2571 and then 1.2467 in June. Such pattern is still holding and the medium term outlook is still remaining mildly bearish and neutral at best. It will take a break above 1.2467 high to indicate USD/CHF has made an important low at 1.1816 and have the medium term down trend from 1.3283 reversed. Otherwise, with USD/CHF still staying below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.2257), further medium term fall is still in favor.
USD/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.63; (P) 114.00; (R1) 114.62; «www.actionforex.com»
USD/JPY’s recovery from 112.58 continues today and further upside could still be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 114.69). However, fall from 116.59 should still be in force as long as upside is limited below 115.65 resistance. Below 113.24 will flip intraday bias to the downside for 112.58 and break will indicate recent decline has resumed for 111.59 support.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, daily MACD’s stay above signal line suggests that the whole decline from 124.12 could have already completed at 111.59. Hence, further break of this low is needed to confirm that sharp fall from 124.13 has resumed. Otherwise, USD/JPY could still develop into lengthier consolidation with another test of 117.15 resistance before completion.
Also, prior break of long term rising trend line (101.65, 108.99) indicates the the whole up trend from 101.65 could also have completed at 124.13 already, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI.. Break of 111.59 will indicate fall from 124.13 has resumed for support zone between 108.99 and 61.8% retracement of 101.65 to 124.13 at 110.23.
EUR/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.89; (P) 157.54; (R1) 158.77; «www.actionforex.com»
EUR/JPY continues to engage in choppy sideway trading between 153.36 and 159.97. Intraday outlook remains neutral at this point and further recover cannot be ruled out. As discussed before, with daily MACD now staying above signal line, the sharp fall from 168.93 could have completed at 149.27 already. Rebound from 149.27 is likely still in progress as long as 153.36 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 149.27 to 159.67 at 153.24) holds and another rise could still be seen before completing the correction from 149.27. However, below 153.36 will indicate that rebound from 149.27 has completed and bring retest of this low.
In the bigger picture, the break of trend line support (137.16, 150.75) confirmed that rally from 130.60 has already completed at 168.93, with bearish divergence condition in weekly RSI. Hence, an important medium term top is in place at 168.93 already. However, since EUR/JPY is still supported within the rising channel shown in the monthly chart. the whole up trend from 88.9 could still be in force and price actions from 168.93 is probably just developing into consolidation to this long term up trend.
But in any case, firm break of 168.93 is needed to confirm long term up trend has resumed, otherwise, another fall could still be seen before completing the consolidation that started from 168.93. Meanwhile, a break of 149.27 low will add much favor to the case that up trend from 88.9 has completed and bring much deeper decline.
Forex News Digest
«www.bloomberg.com»
«www.bloomberg.com»
«www.bloomberg.com»
«c.moreover.com»
Wed, 12 Sep 2007 11:15:00 GMT from Washington Post
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Wed, 12 Sep 2007 11:02:00 GMT from Forbes.com
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Wed, 12 Sep 2007 11:02:00 GMT from Business Day
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Wed, 12 Sep 2007 10:58:00 GMT from Bloomberg
«c.moreover.com»
Wed, 12 Sep 2007 10:53:00 GMT from CNBC
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Wed, 12 Sep 2007 10:50:00 GMT from Reuters
«www.actionforex.com» Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Trade balance (jpy) Jul 784.3B 810.0B 1352.4B
23:50 JPY Japan Current account Jul 1860B 1815B 1520.3B
23:50 JPY Japan Domestic CGPI M/M Jul 0.00% 0.00% 0.60%
23:50 JPY Japan Domestic CGPI Y/Y Jul 1.90% 1.80% 2.10%
00:30 AUD AU Westpac consumer confidence Sep 4.20% N/A -8.10%
04:00 JPY Japan Consumer confidence Aug 44 45 44.6
08:30 GBP U.K. Claimant count Aug -4.2K -8.0K -8.5K -6.7K
08:30 GBP U.K. ILO unemployment rate Aug 5.40% 5.40% 5.40%
08:30 GBP U.K. Avg Earnings inc bonus 3M/YOY 3.50% 3.40% 3.30% 3.40%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial prod’n M/M Jul 0.60% 0.30% -0.10% 0.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial prod’n Y/Y Jul 3.70% 3.10% 2.30% 2.40%
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