Archive for January, 2008

N.L. gives environmental blessing to refinery plan

Thursday, January 31st, 2008

A proposal to develop North America’s first oil refinery in two decades has received environmental approval from the Newfoundland and Labrador government.

A brief statement Thursday said that Newfoundland and Labrador Refining Corp.’s amendments to a prior environmental statement satisfy the government’s concerns. Brian Dalton said he was pleased to get provincial government approval for a proposed refinery in Placentia Bay.
(CBC)

“It certainly is a milestone,” company director Brian Dalton told CBC News, reacting to the decision that helps pave the way for a refinery planned for the head of Placentia Bay and near the existing North Atlantic Refining operation in Come By Chance.

The company spent 15 months working on the environmental review to convince the province that the refinery is environmentally sound.

“I’d go as far as to say that maybe the environmental assessment process of Newfoundland had seen the most public input of any of the major projects,” Dalton said.

The project now needs the federal government’s environmental blessing.

The provincial nod comes on the heels of a labour agreement that Newfoundland and Labrador Refining made shortly before Christmas with 16 unions.

The deal guarantees a top-up on existing wage structures in the province, which the company says will help it compete with higher-paying employers in Alberta.

Newfoundland and Labrador Refining wants to break ground on the site this spring.

Gus Doyle, local president of United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners, said the environmental approval is great news for his members.

“What it means to workers is simply this, is that there is less chance they’ll have to travel back and forth to Alberta this summer,” he said.

“There’ll be more of them staying home in the province and of course there’ll be great spinoff jobs for all areas of the province, once it gets started.”

Strong Session Ends Near Highs

Thursday, January 31st, 2008

Indexes had been running hot into the close, but pulled back some in the session’s final half-hour.

The NYSE composite swelled 1.5% for the day, but had climbed as high as 2% before pulling back some. The Nasdaq shot up 1.7%, but it had added as much as 2.3% before it wobbled.

Transports, banks and financials led the Nasdaq’s upside. Those Nasdaq indexes posted gains of 3.7%, 3.4% and 3%, respectively. Small caps staked out higher ground throughout the day, with the S&P 600 ending 2.7% higher. The S&P 500 and the Dow each rose 1.7%.

Volume increased on both exchanges compared with Wednesday’s strong trading action. Advancing issues led decliners by 3-to-1 on the NYSE and by better than 2-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

Amazon () added 3.49, or 5%, to 77.70 after announcing Wednesday that it met Q4 earnings and beat sales expectations. The stock initially got pummeled in after-hours trade Wednesday.

Railroader Norfolk Southern () spiked up 2.29 to 54.39. The stock’s second day of high-volume gains left it well above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, and 9% below its July high.

Dow component Wal-Mart Stores () powered ahead 1.58 to 50.74 on better than double its average volume.

On the downside, MWI Veterinary Supply () stabbed down 3.20 to 38.23 on wicked volume. The veterinary products distributor missed Q4 earnings views and closed well below its 10-week moving average.

All eyes will be turned Friday morning toward jobs data, the Institute of Supply Management’s purchasing managers’ survey and consumer sentiment numbers from the University of Michigan.

3 p.m. Update: Major Indexes Hitting New Intraday Highs

BY MARIE BEERENS

The stock market continued trending higher by late-afternoon Thursday.

Around 3 p.m. EST, smaller stocks were still leading the rally, with the S&P 600 leaping 2.4%. The Nasdaq jumped 1.3%. The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, while the Dow was up 1.1%. The NYSE was tracking 1% higher. Volume increased across the board for this time of day.

Consumer products giant Procter & Gamble () was the latest to report solid earnings, beating Thomson Financial consensus view by a penny. The company said it benefited from strong sales growth and increased cost savings, which offset higher commodity prices.

While Procter & Gamble was off a few pennies, its news added to the slew of earlier strong results for the retail group. The Retail-Discount and Variety group is now up nearly 10% on the day, and is leading IBD’s 197 industry groups.

Burger King Holdings () leapt 1.87, or 8%, to 26.03, regaining both its 200- and 50-day moving averages on five times its normal trade. The operator of fast-food restaurants posted a 29% increase in fiscal Q2 EPS to 36 cents a share. That’s 4 cents above analysts’ views. The hamburger chain said strong demand for its Homestyle Melt sandwich drove worldwide sales.

Crown Holdings () rose 0.70 to 24.70 in fast trade. It, too, regained its 50- and 200-day moving averages, as volume nearly quadrupled. The container maker reported its Q4 results on Thursday.

L.B. Foster () advanced 2.18, or 5%, to 44.11 on double its regular volume. The maker of trackworks, steel sheet pilings and pipe coatings reported a 200% jump in Q4 earnings to 81 cents a share, beating views by 41 cents. The company booked a huge gain on the sale of a railroad stake..

1 p.m. Update: Stocks Take Higher Ground On Heavy Trade

BY ALAN R. ELLIOTT

Earnings news continued to drive stocks in early afternoon trade, as indexes powered into positive territory after a steep sleep earlier this morning.

The NYSE composite was up 0.2%, and the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow were all up 0.3% at 12:55 p.m. EST. Small caps continued to outperform: The S&P 600 surged 1.4%. NYSE volume soared 53%, and the Nasdaq 33%, compared with the above-average pace seen Wednesday.

The Retail-Discount & Variety group led all industries with an 8% gain for the day. Dollar Tree Stores () and Family Dollar Stores () all racked up solid gains.

MasterCard () charged ahead 25.54 to 214.54 on heavy volume. The 14% leap cleared the stock’s 50-day moving average, putting shares within 6% of their Dec. 11 high. The global credit and transaction services provider’s Q4 earnings nearly tripled to 89 cents as share, easily topping views of 72 cents. Sales jumped 28% to $1.07 billion from $839.2 million a year ago.

Amazon () rebounded from a 7% loss in early trade to gain 0.50 to 74.71, showing the biggest volume percentage change on the S&P 500. On Wednesday, the Web’s top retailer met views with a 109% surge in fourth-quarter profit. Sales growth of 42% topped estimates, but shares slumped on weak profit margins. The stock remains below its 10- and 40-week moving averages, and is 26% below its October high.

Cameron International () tumbled 2.93 to 40.13, as volume swelled to more than four times its norm. The oil and gas drilling equipment maker reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings, but lowered its guidance for Q1. The 7% stumble drove shares well-below their 200-day moving average.

CVS Caremark () staged a powerful gap up, adding 2.60 to 38.62 in fast trade. The pharmacy chain reported Q4 earnings above views, boosted by widening margins on both its pharmacy and retail sides. The company also cited benefits of scale from its acquisition last year of heavyweight Caremark. Management also halved its original estimates for a $2 billion loss in government contracts in 2008 related to the Caremark acquisition. The 7% jump pushed the stock above its 200-day line, and now is trying to regain its 50-day line.

11:15 a.m. Update: Stocks Rise Off Lows After Early Sled Ride

By ALAN R. ELLIOTT

Stocks climbed off their early lows as investors digested a heavy dose of earnings reports and economic data.

The Nasdaq composite had slumped 0.7%, the NYSE composite 0.8% at 10:54 a.m. EST. The S&P 500 and the Dow each slipped 0.5%. Small caps moved ahead of the general market, with the S&P 600 rising 0.2%.

Transports provided a bright spot for the second day in a row. Nasdaq’s Transportation index moved up 1.1%. Dry-bulk shippers, trucking and logistics operators were that sector’s winners.

Indexes fell across Europe and China. London’s FTSE 100 dropped 1.2%, while France’s CAC-40 was off 1.5%. The Hand Seng index in Hong Kong and the Shanghai composite both slipped 0.8%. Markets in Japan and Korea notched solid gains: Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.9% and the Seoul composite rebounded 2.2%.

Online mortgage and credit information provider Bankrate () jumped 1.20 to 54.85, its seventh straight winning session. The heavy-volume, 4% move extends the stock’s break above resistance at 53 this week.

Nike () added 1.22 to 60.62, extending a rebound from support at its 200-day moving average. The athletic apparel maker is still off 11% from its Dec. 3 high.

On the downside, energy industry valve and fittings maker FMC Technologies () gapped down 3.05 to 47.66. The high-volume drop pushed shares back below their 200-day moving average, 30% below its October high. Analysts expect a solid 55% earnings gain in Q4 when the company announces results Feb. 14.

Covance () gapped down and plunged 6.32 to 81.78 in wicked volume. The drug development services specialist met Q4 earnings and topped revenue consensus. The gap-down loss clearly pierced the stock’s 50-day moving average and left it 16% below its Jan. 14 high.

10:15 a.m. Update: Indexes Slide At Open, But Off Lows

By Vincent Mao

Stocks stumbled out of the gate Thursday as earnings, bond insurer woes and economic news weighed. But they have shaved some losses.

At 10:04 a.m. EST, the energy-heavy NYSE composite slumped 1.3% and the financials-heavy S&P 500 1.1%. The Dow slid 1% and the Nasdaq 0.9%.

The Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 51.5 in January from 56.4 last month. That was below estimates for a dip to 52. Subindexes for jobs and new orders are below the neutral 50 level.

New Oriental Education & Technology Group () gapped down, stumbling 4% in brisk trading. Due to severe winter weather, the Chinese school operator now sees fiscal Q3 sales of $42.1 million to $44.2 million vs. analysts’ estimates of $44.74 million.

Nasdaq Stock Market () tumbled 4% in brisk trading. The exchange operator reported a 100% surge in Q4 profit, but missed views by a penny. Revenue rose nearly 16%, above views. Nasdaq didn’t give an outlook due to certain transactions that are expected to close in the first quarter.

On the upside, Gilead Sciences () gained 2%. Wachovia upgraded the biotech to outperform from market perform on valuation.

Allergan () gapped up 4%. The drug maker rallied on news that the FDA rejected competitor Medicis’ Reloxin application. Reloxin is seen as a threat to Allergan’s Botox aesthetic treatment.

9:15 a.m. Update: Stocks Set To Tumble

By VINCENT MAO

Stock futures pointed to a much weaker open Thursday on bond insurer fears and a big jump in jobless claims.

Nasdaq futures dropped 27 points vs. fair value, S&P 500 futures lost 22 points and Dow futures gave up 173 points.

In economic news, initial jobless claims jumped by 69,000 to 375,000 last week. That was the highest level since early October and much higher than economists’ expectations of 320,000. Analysts suggest the spike might be due to seasonal factors, but it’s still a sign of a weak labor market. Futures extended losses on the news.

The January jobs report will be out tomorrow.

Personal spending rose 0.2% in December, slightly above forecasts. Income climbed 0.5%, above estimates of 0.4%.

The core PCE deflator remained unchanged at 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, core inflation rose 2.2%, or above the Fed’s comfort zone.

Meanwhile, the employment cost index rose 0.8% as expected in the fourth quarter.

The Chicago purchasing managers index for January will be out at 9:45 a.m. EST.

MBIA () fell 5% in pre-market trading. The bond insurer reported a Q4 loss of $2.3 billion, or $18.61 a share, vs. a profit of $1.32 a share in the year-ago quarter. Analysts expected a loss of $2.97 a share. The company booked $3.5 billion in write-downs on credit derivatives. MBIA also received a $500 million cash injection from private equity firm Warburg Pincus.

Group mate Ambac Financial Group () slumped 8% in the pre-market.

Amazon.com () tumbled 10% in pre-open trade. Late Wednesday, the Web’s top retailer reported a 109% surge in fourth-quarter profit, meeting views. Sales gained 42%, also above estimates. But shares slumped on weak profit margins.

This morning, Amazon said it would buy Audible.com () for $300 million in cash. Audible.com provides audio editions of books, newspapers and magazines, television and radio programs and original programming.

Cameron International () slumped 8% in the pre-open, even though the oil and gas equipment maker delivered fourth-quarter earnings of 61 cents a share, up 33% from a year earlier and a penny above views. Revenue climbed 25%, also above estimates. But it guided Q1 and full-year income below views.

MasterCard () charged up 5% in the pre-open. Excluding a one-time gain, the credit card firm’s Q4 earnings nearly tripled to 89 cents as share, easily topping views of 72 cents. Sales jumped 28% to $1.07 billion from $839.2 million a year ago.

Internet giant Google () reports after the close. Analysts expect earnings of $4.44 a share, up 40% from a year ago.

Xstrata seeks talks with bid possibles

Thursday, January 31st, 2008

Shares in Xstrata, the world’s sixth largest mining group, have risen sharply in the past few days on suggestions that Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD) of Brazil and were considering bids. Davis has asked Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan Cazenove to contact CVRD and Anglo.

Xstrata’s move came as challenged to formalise its 68bn bid or walk away from what could be the second-biggest takeover ever. Rio, listed in the UK and Australia, said it asked Britain’s Takeover Panel to set a deadline under the ‘put up or shut up’ rule, with BHP either formalising its approach or walking away for six months.

Trading in Baosteel, China’s biggest steelmaker, was suspended today amid speculation that Chinese companies could become involved in a bid for Rio. Baoshan Iron & Steel has denied it is preparing a rival bid.

Investment group Blackstone yesterday dismissed reports that it was planning to bid for Rio with a consortium that is said to include China’s sovereign wealth fund.

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Other stories:
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Chinese may join battle for Rio Tinto
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Rio ‘Pac-Man’ plot to turn tables on BHP
Analysis: Global battle for mining firms
Rio Tinto’s chiefs hit jackpot in BHP offer
Massive profits fuel mining takeovers
BHP 170bn merger bid spurned by Rio
BHP battles to meet Chinese demand

Stocks Take Higher Ground On Heavy Trade

Thursday, January 31st, 2008

Earnings news continued to drive stocks in early afternoon trade, as indexes powered into positive territory after a steep sleep earlier this morning.

The NYSE composite was up 0.2%, and the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow were all up 0.3% at 12:55 p.m. EST. Small caps continued to outperform: The S&P 600 surged 1.4%. NYSE volume soared 53%, and the Nasdaq 33%, compared with the above-average pace seen Wednesday.

The Retail-Discount & Variety group led all industries with an 8% gain for the day. Dollar Tree Stores () and Family Dollar Stores () all racked up solid gains.

MasterCard () charged ahead 25.54 to 214.54 on heavy volume. The 14% leap cleared the stock’s 50-day moving average, putting shares within 6% of their Dec. 11 high. The global credit and transaction services provider’s Q4 earnings nearly tripled to 89 cents as share, easily topping views of 72 cents. Sales jumped 28% to $1.07 billion from $839.2 million a year ago.

Amazon () rebounded from a 7% loss in early trade to gain 0.50 to 74.71, showing the biggest volume percentage change on the S&P 500. On Wednesday, the Web’s top retailer met views with a 109% surge in fourth-quarter profit. Sales growth of 42% topped estimates, but shares slumped on weak profit margins. The stock remains below its 10- and 40-week moving averages, and is 26% below its October high.

Cameron International () tumbled 2.93 to 40.13, as volume swelled to more than four times its norm. The oil and gas drilling equipment maker reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings, but lowered its guidance for Q1. The 7% stumble drove shares well-below their 200-day moving average.

CVS Caremark () staged a powerful gap up, adding 2.60 to 38.62 in fast trade. The pharmacy chain reported Q4 earnings above views, boosted by widening margins on both its pharmacy and retail sides. The company also cited benefits of scale from its acquisition last year of heavyweight Caremark. Management also halved its original estimates for a $2 billion loss in government contracts in 2008 related to the Caremark acquisition. The 7% jump pushed the stock above its 200-day line, and now is trying to regain its 50-day line.

11:15 a.m. Update: Stocks Rise Off Lows After Early Sled Ride

By ALAN R. ELLIOTT

Stocks climbed off their early lows as investors digested a heavy dose of earnings reports and economic data.

The Nasdaq composite had slumped 0.7%, the NYSE composite 0.8% at 10:54 a.m. EST. The S&P 500 and the Dow each slipped 0.5%. Small caps moved ahead of the general market, with the S&P 600 rising 0.2%.

Transports provided a bright spot for the second day in a row. Nasdaq’s Transportation index moved up 1.1%. Dry-bulk shippers, trucking and logistics operators were that sector’s winners.

Indexes fell across Europe and China. London’s FTSE 100 dropped 1.2%, while France’s CAC-40 was off 1.5%. The Hand Seng index in Hong Kong and the Shanghai composite both slipped 0.8%. Markets in Japan and Korea notched solid gains: Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.9% and the Seoul composite rebounded 2.2%.

Online mortgage and credit information provider Bankrate () jumped 1.20 to 54.85, its seventh straight winning session. The heavy-volume, 4% move extends the stock’s break above resistance at 53 this week.

Nike () added 1.22 to 60.62, extending a rebound from support at its 200-day moving average. The athletic apparel maker is still off 11% from its Dec. 3 high.

On the downside, energy industry valve and fittings maker FMC Technologies () gapped down 3.05 to 47.66. The high-volume drop pushed shares back below their 200-day moving average, 30% below its October high. Analysts expect a solid 55% earnings gain in Q4 when the company announces results Feb. 14.

Covance () gapped down and plunged 6.32 to 81.78 in wicked volume. The drug development services specialist met Q4 earnings and topped revenue consensus. The gap-down loss clearly pierced the stock’s 50-day moving average and left it 16% below its Jan. 14 high.

10:15 a.m. Update: Indexes Slide At Open, But Off Lows

By Vincent Mao

Stocks stumbled out of the gate Thursday as earnings, bond insurer woes and economic news weighed. But they have shaved some losses.

At 10:04 a.m. EST, the energy-heavy NYSE composite slumped 1.3% and the financials-heavy S&P 500 1.1%. The Dow slid 1% and the Nasdaq 0.9%.

The Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 51.5 in January from 56.4 last month. That was below estimates for a dip to 52. Subindexes for jobs and new orders are below the neutral 50 level.

New Oriental Education & Technology Group () gapped down, stumbling 4% in brisk trading. Due to severe winter weather, the Chinese school operator now sees fiscal Q3 sales of $42.1 million to $44.2 million vs. analysts’ estimates of $44.74 million.

Nasdaq Stock Market () tumbled 4% in brisk trading. The exchange operator reported a 100% surge in Q4 profit, but missed views by a penny. Revenue rose nearly 16%, above views. Nasdaq didn’t give an outlook due to certain transactions that are expected to close in the first quarter.

On the upside, Gilead Sciences () gained 2%. Wachovia upgraded the biotech to outperform from market perform on valuation.

Allergan () gapped up 4%. The drug maker rallied on news that the FDA rejected competitor Medicis’ Reloxin application. Reloxin is seen as a threat to Allergan’s Botox aesthetic treatment.

9:15 a.m. Update: Stocks Set To Tumble

By VINCENT MAO

Stock futures pointed to a much weaker open Thursday on bond insurer fears and a big jump in jobless claims.

Nasdaq futures dropped 27 points vs. fair value, S&P 500 futures lost 22 points and Dow futures gave up 173 points.

In economic news, initial jobless claims jumped by 69,000 to 375,000 last week. That was the highest level since early October and much higher than economists’ expectations of 320,000. Analysts suggest the spike might be due to seasonal factors, but it’s still a sign of a weak labor market. Futures extended losses on the news.

The January jobs report will be out tomorrow.

Personal spending rose 0.2% in December, slightly above forecasts. Income climbed 0.5%, above estimates of 0.4%.

The core PCE deflator remained unchanged at 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, core inflation rose 2.2%, or above the Fed’s comfort zone.

Meanwhile, the employment cost index rose 0.8% as expected in the fourth quarter.

The Chicago purchasing managers index for January will be out at 9:45 a.m. EST.

MBIA () fell 5% in pre-market trading. The bond insurer reported a Q4 loss of $2.3 billion, or $18.61 a share, vs. a profit of $1.32 a share in the year-ago quarter. Analysts expected a loss of $2.97 a share. The company booked $3.5 billion in write-downs on credit derivatives. MBIA also received a $500 million cash injection from private equity firm Warburg Pincus.

Group mate Ambac Financial Group () slumped 8% in the pre-market.

Amazon.com () tumbled 10% in pre-open trade. Late Wednesday, the Web’s top retailer reported a 109% surge in fourth-quarter profit, meeting views. Sales gained 42%, also above estimates. But shares slumped on weak profit margins.

This morning, Amazon said it would buy Audible.com () for $300 million in cash. Audible.com provides audio editions of books, newspapers and magazines, television and radio programs and original programming.

Cameron International () slumped 8% in the pre-open, even though the oil and gas equipment maker delivered fourth-quarter earnings of 61 cents a share, up 33% from a year earlier and a penny above views. Revenue climbed 25%, also above estimates. But it guided Q1 and full-year income below views.

MasterCard () charged up 5% in the pre-open. Excluding a one-time gain, the credit card firm’s Q4 earnings nearly tripled to 89 cents as share, easily topping views of 72 cents. Sales jumped 28% to $1.07 billion from $839.2 million a year ago.

Internet giant Google () reports after the close. Analysts expect earnings of $4.44 a share, up 40% from a year ago.

Mid-Day Report: EUR/USD Fails 1.5, a Top in Place?

Thursday, January 31st, 2008

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 23 07 12:07 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report EUR/USD Fails 1.5, a Top in Place?

While movements in the currency markets could be exaggerated by thin holiday liquidity, it’s clear that Euro has made a short term top against dollar, after making a record high and failing 1.5 key medium term resistance. Comments from ECB counter member Ordonez are used as an excuse to take profits on long Euro positions. Ordonez said that he saw a stronger than expected slowdown in the Eurozone as the effects of the financial market turmoil is still uncertain. The comments reminds investors that the subprime problem is not a US only problem but will likely spillover to the global economy. Other European majors, including swissy and sterling, also weaken against the greenback.

However, note that the pull back in Euro doesn’t equivalent to strength in dollar in a broad sense. Instead, USD/JPY is still hovering 2 year low. And further weakness in EUR/JPY could trigger another wave of sell of in USD/JPY too. Technically speaking, while a short term top is in place in EUR/USD, it’s too early to call for a medium term top yet. Nevertheless, more downside is likely in near term.

Data released saw mixed PMI fro Eurozone. PMI Services dropped more than expected to 53.7 in Nov while PMI manufacturing unexpectedly rose to 52.6. UK Q3 GDP grew 0.7% qoq, 3.2% yoy, lower than preliminary estimate. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4822; (P) 1.4847; (R1) 1.4873; «www.actionforex.com»

After reaching new record high of 1.4966 earlier today, EUR/USD reverses and falls sharply to as low as 1.4783. Break of 1.4841 minor support indicates that a short term top is in place at 1.4966 after failing ahead of 1.5 psychological resistance as well as 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004 medium term target. Rise from 1.4014 has possibly completed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI too. At this point, further decline is expected to be seen to short term rising channel support (now at 1.4711) and break will confirm such case and bring deeper decline towards 1.4519 support. On the upside, firm break above 1.5 is now needed to confirm recent rally has resumed. Otherwise, risk remains on the downside.

In the bigger picture, regardless of internal structure, medium term up trend from 1.1639 remains in force and is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.3668 (04 high) and is now close to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004 target which will overlap with 1.5 psychological resistance. Upside could be limited by this resistance initially on overbought condition. Sustained trading above this key resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally is still underway to next projection target of 100% projection at 1.7048.

On the downside, while rise from 1.4014 is likely completed, it’s early to confirm that rise from 1.3360 has completed too. Focus will be on 1.4519 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.4014 to 1.4966 at 1.4490). Decisive break this support zone will add much credence to the case that rally from 1.3360 has completed too and bring deeper correction to 1.4014/4281 support zone. But strong rebound above this level will suggest another rise should be seen before making a medium term top.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 2.0573; (P) 2.0628; (R1) 2.0672; «www.actionforex.com»

Cable’s fall from 2.0765 and break of 2.0582 suggest that rebound from 2.0353 has possibly completed already. At this point, intraday bias is back to the downside for a retest of 2.0353 support. As discussed before, rise from 1.9652 has completed after touching medium term rising channel resistance. With 2.0845 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 2.0353 at 2.0852) still holds, rebound from 2.0353 is still treated as correction only and another fall is still expected to medium term rising channel (now at 2.0033). However, sustained break of 2.0845 cluster resistance will indicate that fall from 2.1161 has completed and will bring retest of this high.

In the bigger picture, medium term rally from 1.7047, regardless of internal structure, is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (04 high) with subsequent correction ended at 1.7047. Break of 61.8% projection level at 2.0677 now encourages further medium term rally to next projection target of 100% projection 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.2921. On the downside, decisive break of the medium term rising channel (2.0033) is needed to signal that such medium term rally has made a top. Otherwise, medium term outlook remains bullish.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0996; (P) 1.1017; (R1) 1.1030; «www.actionforex.com».

USD/CHF rebounds strongly after making another record low at 1.0890 and met downside target of 61.8% projection of 1.1784 to 1.1187 from 1.1298 at 1.0929. Touching of 1.1039 resistance indicates a short term bottom is likely in place and at this point, further rebound is expected towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.1143). However, as long as 1.1298 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1891 to 1.0890 at 1.1272) holds, the current rebound will be treated as correction only and another fall is still expected after completion. Though, firm break of 1.0890 is now needed to confirm recent fall has resumed to 100% projection at 1.0701.

In the bigger picture, the current preferred interpretation is that fall from 1.3282 was initially contained at 1.1919 and turned into sideway triangle consolidation that completed at 1.2467, where the medium term down trend resumed. Sustained trading below 1.1100 clusters support (95 low and 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2467 at 1.1103) encourages decline to next medium term target of 161.8% projection at 1.0260. On the upside, break of 1.1298 cluster resistance is needed to be the first signal that a medium term low is formed. Otherwise, medium term outlook remains bearish.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.08; (P) 108.62; (R1) 108.96; «www.actionforex.com».

USD/JPY recovers mildly after reaching 107.54 earlier today, touching 61.8% projection of 115.91 to 109.12 from 111.76 at 107.56. But still, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 108.62 resistance holds. Further decline is expected to next downside target of 100% projection of 124.13 to 111.59 from 117.94 at 105.40. However, on the upside, above 108.62 will indicate a short term bottom is possibly formed and bring rebound to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 109.91).

In the bigger picture, the three wave structure of the up trend from 101.65 to 124.13 suggests that it’s corrective in nature. Such development flipped favor to the case that the rally from 101.65 could indeed be the final leg of a long term triangle formation (147.68, 101.22, 135.20, 101.65, 124.13). The break of falling trend line (147.68, 135.20) was merely a throwover in the last leg. Sustained trading below 108.99 low adds more credence to this case and put key long term support zone of 101.22/65 into focus. On the upside, break of 111.76 resistance is needed to be the first signal that a medium term low is formed. Otherwise, medium term outlook remains bearish.

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.47; (P) 161.36; (R1) 161.89; «www.actionforex.com»

EUR/JPY weakens further to 159.45 today and at this point, further decline is expected to retest 158.67 low as long as 161.68 resistance holds. As discussed before, with EUR/JPY still kept below 164.00/26 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 167.62 to 158.67 at 164.26) and struggling to take out 55 days EMA, the case that rise from 149.27 has already completed at 167.72 is in favor. That is, price actions from 168.93 is developing into larger scale consolidation and the last falling leg is in progress. Break of 158.67 will confirm fall from 167.62 has resumed for 61.8% retracement of 149.27 to 167.72 at 156.31 first.

On the upside, above 161.68 will flip intraday bias to the upside and indicate consolidation from 158.67 will extend further. Also, sustained break of 164.00/26 cluster resistance will flip favors back to the case that price action from 167.72 is merely consolidation to rise from 149.27. and will bring retest of this high and then 168.93 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, break of trend line support (137.16, 150.75) confirmed that medium term rally rally from 130.60 has made an important medium term top at 168.93. However, subsequent sharp correction from there to 149.27 was supported by long term rising channel. Hence, long term up trend from 88.97 (00 low) remains intact. But break of 168.93 high is needed to confirm such up trend has resumed. However, sustained break of 149.27 low will also have the long term rising channel taken out, which in turn add much weight to the case that rise from 88.97 has indeed completed at 168.83 and bring much deeper medium term decline.

Forex News Digest

«www.reuters.comFinanceArticle.aspx?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=2007-11-23T092911Z_01_L23569556_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-3.XML»

«www.bloomberg.com»

«www.bloomberg.com»

«www.bloomberg.com»

«www.bloomberg.com»

«www.bloomberg.com»

«c.moreover.com»
Fri, 23 Nov 2007 07:16:00 GMT from Reuters UK

«c.moreover.com»
Fri, 23 Nov 2007 07:07:00 GMT from Reuters

«c.moreover.com»
Fri, 23 Nov 2007 06:23:00 GMT from People’s Daily Online

«c.moreover.com»
Fri, 23 Nov 2007 06:07:00 GMT from New Zealand Herald

«c.moreover.com»
Fri, 23 Nov 2007 05:59:00 GMT from Financial Times

«www.actionforex.com» Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
07:00 EUR Germany Import price index M/M Oct 0.70% 1.30% 0.60%
07:00 EUR Germany Import price index Y/Y Oct 2.30% 1.90% 1.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI service Nov 53.7 54.1 55.8
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI manufacturing Nov 52.6 51 51.5
09:30 GBP U.K. GDP Q/Q Q3 0.70% 0.80% 0.80%
09:30 GBP U.K. GDP Y/Y Q3 3.20% 3.30% 3.30%
Japan Market holiday

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