Archive for May, 2008

Turkish Lira Set for Decline

Friday, May 16th, 2008

2007 was a banner year for the Turkish Lira, which appreciated 21% against the US Dollar. However, in the year-to-date, the currency has returned nearly 10% of this gain, making it the third worst performing currency in the world. Turkey generally, and the Lira specifically, are considered by investors as proxies for emerging markets. The global trend towards risk aversion, as well as skyrocketing inflation, are hurting many such currencies. In Turkey, inflation is so problematic (9.4% at last count) that the Central Bank has raised its benchmark interest rate to 15.25%. Ironically, the more the Lira depreciates, the harder it becomes for the Central Bank to control inflation, causing the Lira to slide further as part of a self-perpetuating free-fall. In addition, the country is beset by political uncertainty, as the courts determine whether the nation’s current government can stay in office. Bloomberg News reports:

“The recent political developments are likely to complicate policy-making and the investment climate. The deteriorating political backdrop will in turn undermine the prospects for restoring fiscal discipline and reviving the reform agenda.”

Read More: «www.bloomberg.com»

Stocks Set For Higher Start

Friday, May 16th, 2008

Stock futures pointed to a modestly higher open Friday on better-than-expected housing data.

Nasdaq futures climbed 2 points vs. fair value, S&P 500 futures gained 4 points and Dow futures rose 33 points.

In economic news, the housing sector showed some signs of life. Housing starts in April rose 8.2% to an annualized rate of 1.032 million units, rebounding from a 17-year low in March. That was much better than the forecast for 940,000 units. Building permits climbed 4.9% to an annualized rate of 978,000, well above forecasts for 912,000 units.

Crude oil swelled above $127 a barrel on talks of increased Chinese demand.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is due out at 10 a.m. EDT.

At noon EDT, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is slated to speak on the current housing and credit conditions.

Big early gainers include China Finance Online (), which surged 13% in the pre-open after it raised its Q1 outlook. The Chinese financial data firm sees sales in a range of $10.5 million to $10.8 million vs. views for $10.4 million. Net income is pegged at $4.5 million to $5 million compared to previous guidance of $3.7 million to $4 million.

BMC Software () gained 5% in the pre-market after it reported strong earnings and gave a rosy outlook. Late Thursday, the business software maker delivered fiscal Q4 profit of 63 cents a share, excluding items. That was up 57% from a year ago and 12 cents above views. Sales rose 11% to $466.9 million, also above views. BMC guided fiscal 2009 profit in a range of $2.10 to $2.20 a share vs. analysts estimates of $2.07.

Yahoo () signed a multi-year advertising deal with U.K.’s WPP Group. Yahoo also is close to penning an advertising pact with Google ().

Meanwhile, Yahoo Chairman Roy Bostock responded to a proposed proxy fight from billionaire stakeholder Carl Icahn, who has lobbied for a new board of directors after Yahoo spurned a buyout offer from Microsoft (). Bostock said Icahn’s position “reflects a significant misunderstanding of the facts about the Microsoft proposal and the diligence with which our board evaluated and responded to that proposal.” Shares of Yahoo edged lower in the pre-market.

Transports, Financials, Techs Lead Sell-Off

Friday, May 16th, 2008

Indexes posted moderate losses Wednesday in the face of earnings jitters, a weaker dollar and spiking oil prices.

The NYSE composite ended 0.8% lower while the Nasdaq slipped a full 1.1%, according to preliminary figures.

Transportation stocks were hit hard by oil prices and disappointing results from UPS (). The Dow transports fell 3.5%. UPS shares fell 2.74 to 70.57, contributing to the S&P 500’s 0.8% decline.

Boeing () rose 3.58 to 78.60 on the biggest volume jump among Dow components, despite announcing yet another delay for the launch of its 787 Dreamliner. The Dow lost 0.4%.

Small caps were under heavier selling, with the S&P 600 off 1.9%.

Trading rose on both exchanges, according to early readings. That would give the market a distribution day, the second since the March 20 follow-through.

The ratio of declining to advancing issues eased from 5-to-1 to 3-to-1 by the end of the session.

Energy and fertilizer stocks turned in some of the day’s best performances.

So did Russia-based steel producer Mechel (), which jumped 12.78 to 142.88 after announcing its $221 million purchase of Romanian steel maker Ductil Steel. Mechel shares are in buying range on a pullback to their 10-week moving average line.

Focus Media Holding () dropped 2.41 to 34.64. The China-based advertising firm has been digging deeper below its 10- and 40-week moving averages since February.

3:15 p.m. Update: Comeback Fades In Late Trading

By VINCENT MAO

Stocks hovered near their worst levels of the session late Wednesday. A rebound attempt just after the midday was short-lived after more bleak news in the financials.

At 2:46 p.m. EDT, the Nasdaq was down 1.4%, the S&P 500 1%, the NYSE composite 0.9% and the Dow 0.7%.

Turnover was tracking just about unchanged from yesterday’s levels at this time on the NYSE, but higher on the Nasdaq, putting the composite on pace for a distribution day.

Declining stocks led advancers by 5-to-2 on the NYSE and by nearly 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq. The put-call volume ratio spiked above 1.0, a sign of heightened fear among investors.

Goldman Sachs () and Morgan Stanley () dropped 3% each on news that their amount of riskier assets increased as a percentage of total assets from the prior quarter.

Merrill Lynch () fell 0.55 to 46.25. It was off session lows of 45.51. According to CNBC, the company may write down as much as $6.5 billion in the current quarter. But the write-downs are not entirely tied to subprime investments. Merrill reports Q1 earnings on April 17. Analysts are expecting a loss of $1.69 a share.

Oil stocks continued to push ahead as crude swelled to $112.21 a barrel.

SandRidge Energy () gained 1.54 to a record high of 41.66 in fast trade. Shares of the oil and gas producer came public in November at 26 each. The company’s sales growth ranged from 71% to 78% in the prior four quarters. But its profit growth has been a mixed bag.

National Oilwell Varco () gained 2 to 69.83 on brisk volume. The maker of oil and gas equipment continued to push ahead after finding support at its 200-day moving average Tuesday. It reports earnings on April 30.

1:15 p.m. Update: Volume Picks Up As Losses Deepen

BY VINCENT MAO

Stocks piled on losses in midday trade Wednesday on worries over corporate profits and record-high oil prices.

At 12:46 p.m. EDT, the Nasdaq dropped 1.1%, the S&P 500 0.8%, the NYSE composite 0.7% and the Dow 0.6%.

Volume was now tracking higher across the board. Decliners outpaced advancers by just over 2-to-1 on both exchanges.

May crude swelled $2.80 to $111.30 a barrel after the Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected drop in supplies. Earlier, oil touched a high of $111.43.

Airlines and other transportation groups backpedaled. Oil-related and gold groups gained.

Layne Christensen () tumbled 3.05, or 7%, to 40.93 in heavy trade. Morgan Joseph cut the provider of drilling and construction services to hold from buy on valuation. On Tuesday, Layne leapt 22% after it posted Q4 earnings well ahead of views.

Syngenta () gave up 1.66 to 59.22 in fast trade. The Swiss maker of crop protection products is pulling back after ramping out of a pullback to its 10-week moving average on heavy volume last week.

On the upside, Atwood Oceanics () ascended 3.69 to 100.78 in fast trade. The offshore drilling contractor is now just 1% past a 99.81 buy point of a deep handle. In a sign of strength, the stock’s Relative Strength line is already at a new high ahead of price.

Apache () rallied 3.41 to a record high of 133.41. That puts the oil and gas giant 11% past a 120.66 buy point from a pullback to its 10-week moving average. The firm’s profit growth accelerated from 6% to 79% in the past two quarters. Growth is slated to ramp up 93% in the current quarter. UBS reiterated a buy rating on the stock.

11:15 a.m. Update: Indexes Hold To Lows As Volume Turns Mixed

By ALAN R. ELLIOTT

Weak economic data and reports of further airline flight cancellations for safety inspections tamped down market confidence Wednesday morning.

The NYSE composite had lost 0.3%, and the Nasdaq was off 0.6% at 10:54 a.m. EDT.

Transportation issues weighed heavily on both exchanges, with the Dow transports down 1.9%. Small and midcaps slipped ahead of big caps. The S&P 600 edged 0.5% lower vs. a 0.2% loss for the S&P 500 and a 0.1% decline on the Dow. Utilities and insurance segments showed strength and the NYSE’s energy index added 1.2%.

Volume turned mixed, up slightly on the Nasdaq and somewhat lower on the NYSE.

Red ink girdled the globe, with markets trading lower around the world.

The Shanghai composite ripped 5.5% lower, primarily on concerns that the government was set to tighten monetary liquidity and further boost the yuan in order to to rein in inflation. Hong Kong markets rode the mainland market’s coattails, with the Hang Seng index slipping 1.5%. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 dipped 1.1%, hit by economic worries and a sell-off of real estate stocks.

Stocks in Europe and the U.K. took a less severe slip, buoyed by energy stocks and soft trading ahead of an interest rate decision by the Bank of England. London’s FTSE 100 nipped just a fraction lower. The CAC-40 in Paris shaved off 0.3% and the DAX in Frankfurt was down 0.4%.

Inventories data showed a higher-than-expected 1.1% gain in February, indicating wholesaler sales continued to slow. The increase followed a revised 1.3% gain for January, and suggested wholesalers were likely to place fewer orders as on-hand supplies built against slowing sales.

Oil inventories declined 3.1 million barrels, their first down week since February and only their second lower reading this year. Gasoline inventories slipped for a fourth week, down by 3.4 million barrels. Refinery activity also picked up, with capacity inching above 83%, its highest level since February. May crude futures turned and rose 83 cents to $109.33 a barrel.

Decliners led advancing stocks by about 3-to-2 on both exchanges, but most leading stocks were managed to dodge the downside.

Transocean () limited the S&P 500’s dip, adding 4.06 to 147.91. The company announced it would report Q1 results May 7. Analysts expect earnings growth to slow from triple digits to 33%. The company topped Q4 views by 33%. Shares on April 4 cleared a 145.07 buy point on a cup-with-handle base.

Solar energy component maker First Solar () troweled on another 6.29 to 278.28. The stock is holding near highs, 18% above a 236.67 buy point after an April 1 breakout from a cup-with-handle base.

10:15 a.m. Update: Stocks Fall In Light Trade

By VINCENT MAO

Gains from a higher open quickly faded Wednesday, as stocks fell into negative territory.

At 9:55 a.m. EDT, the Nasdaq lost 0.4%. The S&P 500 and NYSE composite were each down 0.3%. The Dow eased only 0.1%, thanks to support from shares of Boeing (), which cruised up 4%.

Volume was tracking lower across the board.

Greenbrier Companies () gapped down and lost 0.72 to 25.71 . The railcar maker reported Q2 earnings of 9 cents a share, well below views of 33 cents. Profit was hurt by a charges related to a plant closing.

Aluminum Corp. of China () dropped 2.11, or 5%, to 41.49 and sliced its 50-day moving average. The stock had been trying to recover from a 64% correction from its October peak.

On the upside, fertilizer makers continued to pile up gains.

CF Industries Holdings () moved up 4.59 to a new peak of 135.61. The company has delivered triple-digit profit grow for the past three quarters. Another is expected in the current period.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan () rallied 2.85 to 179.91, also a new high. It reports Q1 results on April 24. Analysts see profit more than doubling to $1.47 a share on sales of nearly $1.7 billion.

Elsewhere, GrafTech International () gapped up and rallied 1.58 to 18.60 in fast trade. Oppenheimer & Co. upgraded the maker of carbon and graphite products to outperform from perform and set a target price of 24.

9:15 a.m. Update: Stocks Poised For Mildly Higher Open

By VINCENT MAO

Stock futures pointed to a slightly higher open Wednesday despite worries about corporate earnings. Nasdaq futures rose 2 points vs. fair value, S&P 500 futures edged up a fraction of a point and Dow futures climbed 20 points.

UPS () dropped 4% in the pre-market after it cut its Q1 outlook. Citing decreased volume, higher fuel costs and a weak economy, the world’s largest shipping firm said late Tuesday that it now expects first-quarter profit of 86 cents or 87 cents a share. That’s down from a prior range of 94 cents to 98 cents and below views of 93 cents.

UPS group mate FedEx () slipped 1% in the pre-open.

FormFactor () stumbled 8% in the pre-market following a number of negative developments. Due to weakness in the DRAM memory market, the chip equipment maker lowered its Q1 forecasts. FormFactor expects losses to extend beyond it previous range of 15 cents a share to 25 cents. Revenue is pegged at $65 million to $66 vs. a prior outlook of $70 million to $80 million. It also will slash about 12% off its work force.

On the bright side, Citigroup () rose 2% in the pre-market on news that it might be close to selling $12 billion of leveraged loans and bonds to a consortium of investors. According to reports, the sale would to be private equity firms Apollo Group, Blackstone Group () and TPG at slightly below 90 cents on the dollar. Citigroup reports earnings April 18. It’s expected to lose 95 cents a share.

Boeing () gained 2% in the pre-market despite news of another delay for its 787 Dreamliners. Citing slower-than-anticipated completion of work, the Dow component pushed back the delivery of its new plane to the third quarter of 2009 instead of the first.

Data on February wholesale inventories will be out at 10 a.m. EDT. A 0.5% rise is expected.

Crude oil eased 25 cents to $108.25 ahead of the weekly energy inventories report at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Market report: Friday preview

Friday, May 16th, 2008

Spread-betters expect the FTSE 100 index to open 50 points lower at 6,533 having closed last night down 135.5 points or 2%, at 6,586.1.

Overnight in Wall Street, stocks plunged on concerns about a slowing US economy and the Federal Reserve may be done with cutting interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell back 362.14 to 13,567.87, while the Standard Poor’s 500 index was 40.94 lower at 1,508.44 and the Nasdaq Composite index fell 64.29 to 2,794.83.

In US economic news, investors today will be focused on October non-farm payrolls to see if there is any further evidence the economy is slowing. The market is expecting that 85,000 jobs were added to the US economy in October, down from 110,000 in September.

On Asian markets, the Hang Seng index finished the morning session sharply lower, down 836.80 points at 30,656.08 led by banks and property companies as investors locked in recent gains following the sell off on Wall Street.

Meanwhile the Nikkei 225 Stock Average closes down 352.92 points or 2.1% at 16,517.48.

In Asian trading hours, oil prices traded higher but was below record peaks of more than $96 as investors took profit and global stock markets weakened on concerns over the US economy.

New York’s main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in December, was trading at $93.96 a barrel, up 47 cents from its close of $93.49 in US trade Thursday.

Brent North Sea crude for December traded at $90.70, up 98 cents.

Turning to the UK markets, earning news may be a focus with expected to report a 25% increase in first half pretax profits on Friday due to strong growth in premium traffic and favourable comparatives.

The airline’s first-half pretax is likely to come in at around 590m compared to the 371m it reported in the same period of 2006, which was plagued by security disruptions and heightened security measures that cost BA around 100m.

Elsewhere, British Broadcasting is reporting first-quarter figures with the spotlight likely to be on subscriber growth and retention. The UK pay-TV giant’s key performance indicators, including the number of additional subscribers to its TV, broadband and telephony products, as well as how much they spend and how many stick with Sky, will be the focus of market attention.

There have also been renewed calls for British Sky Broadcasting shareholders to vote down chairman Rupert Murdoch’s re-election at the AGM later the same day.

Other stories:
Astra hit by copycat challenge to Crestor
BG joins in oils’ slide with a dive to 587m
Unilever beats costs pressure
Oil ‘to hit’ $125 as US stockpiles fall
Food price rises bite at Domino’s Pizza
UK ready for Mifid but others lag
Fed cuts US interest rates to fight slump
City interview: Surgeon and spymaster to big business
Stagecoach revenues jump after fares blitz
Channel Tunnel high-speed link sell-off
Kingfisher chief set to leave
Vodafone’s Phones4U blow to Carphone

April Marks Dollar Turnaround

Friday, May 16th, 2008

Earlier this week, the Forex Blog speculated that the tide was turning on the Euro, which had retreated from the $1.60 threshold. Sure enough, the month of April saw the best monthly performance by the Dollar in over two years. The sudden about-face by the Dollar stems from changes in interest rate expectations. Only a couple weeks ago, the consensus among investors was that the Fed would cut rates further at its next meeting; the only point of uncertainty was whether rates would be cut by 25 or 50 basis points.

As of today, however, there is only a 25% chance that the Fed will cut rates at all, if you go by futures prices. Regarding the Euro, investors are no longer so sure that the ECB will hike rates in response to surging inflation. In short, the new consensus is that the US/EU interest rate differential has stabilized. Then there is the economic picture; investors have “chosen” to be pleasantly surprised by the most recent economic data. While the economic downturn still seems inevitable, it may not be as severe as investors had previously feared. Reuters reports:

In contrast to slightly stronger U.S. data, the Ifo German business sentiment index this week showed the biggest monthly fall since September 2001.

Read More: «www.reuters.com»